PROVA DUE MESI DI SERVIZIO PAGANDO SOLO UN MESE

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L’indice tedesco DAX ha completato 5 onde dai minimi del 2016? quali saranno i suoi scenari futuri? Il mio servizio aveva previsto con ampio anticipo la formazione di nuovi massimi per l’indice tedesco nel 2016!! ecco lo screenshot di allora:

DAX.png

 

In questo snodo cruciale del mercato per i nuovi clienti ci sarà lo sconto del 50% sul primo mese: riceverai quindi, il conteggio delle onde di Elliott per i principali indici azionari, le principali valute e le commodities a soli 49 Euro per i prossimi due mesi anziché per un mese.

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Venerdì 26 Maggio a villa Braida evento con XTB

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Venerdì 26 Maggio sarò presente come relatore per XTB (broker leader nel mercato CFD) presso villa Braida di Mogliano Veneto. Nell’evento presenterò il modello delle Onde di Elliott applicato ai mercati finanziari, passando dalla teoria alle basi matematiche, per poi concludere con una panoramica sui mercati “caldi” del momento.

L’evento è gratuito, basta registrarsi a questo link:

http://it.xtb.com/evento-xtb-maggio-2017?utm_source=affiliate&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=A_58905_venecia_2017&utm_content=pozzebon&utm_term=IT

Vi aspetto numerosi

Filippo

 

 

Contracts for Difference (“CFDs”) are leveraged products and carry a high level of risk to your capital as prices may move rapidly against you. Losses can exceed your deposits and you may be required to make further payments.

Una settimana di lezioni gratis

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Sei un trader e vuoi capire meglio la teoria delle onde di Elliott, per poi metterla in pratica nei mercati finanziari? Elliott wave international organizza una settimana aperta a tutti, con lezioni pratiche, al fine di imparare e applicare le onde di Elliott come metodo di investimento, clicca qui è completamente gratuito:

 

http://www.elliottwave.com/Free-Events/Trader-Education-Week

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I frattali in natura

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La sera ti ritrovi a tagliare il radicchio rosso di Treviso e ti imbatti nella teora dei frattali. La magia della natura e ogni processo di crescita nell’universo è regolato dalla golden section, scoperta da Leonardo Fibonacci, forse il più grande matematico di tutti i tempi. Mi chiedo come mai nel 1200 eravamo all’avanguardia mentre adesso, non siamo all’avanguardia in nessun campo,  a parte la cucina.

Non trascurate questo post che, all’apparenza può non sembrare molto tecnico, il primo passo per aver successo nel trading è capire il concetto di frattale e riconoscerlo nel mercato, nel frattempo ammirate questo radicchio:

radicchio

Golden section radicchio

radicchio-cespo

processo di crescita completo

 

 

Chinese Yuan: “Manipulated” Does NOT Mean “Unpredictable” “…markets are bigger than governments.”

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Chinese Yuan: “Manipulated” Does NOT Mean “Unpredictable”
“…markets are bigger than governments.”

By Elliott Wave International

This year’s U.S. presidential election brought into focus one market you don’t hear about often: the Chinese yuan, or renminbi.

“Donald Trump has been telling us all for a long time now that China is a currency manipulator. It’s part of his plan for his first 100 days in office to get on with making sure that China is legally declared to be such a currency manipulator and thus start the process of doing something about it.

“The problem with this is that China really is a currency manipulator. But they’re manipulating the value of the yuan up, not down. Thus returning it to the correct free market value isn’t going to have the desired effect of closing America’s trade deficit with China.” (Forbes, Nov. 13.)

However things shake out with China under the new White House administration, let’s look closer at the basic premise of this argument — namely, that China’s government manipulates the currency.

By definition, market manipulation means stopping the free-market forces from doing what they do best: setting a fair value of an asset that suits both the buyer and the seller. It also implies that the manipulated market is no longer predictable using trend indicators you would apply to other, freely-traded assets.

So, does this mean that the yuan has been unpredictable?

You be the judge.

Below, you see a chart of the yuan vs. U.S. dollar exchange rate going back to 2014.

The arrows on this chart show you the timing of 15 yuan forecasts subscribers saw over the past two years in our Sunday-Tuesday-Thursday Asian-Pacific Short Term Update, edited by Chris Carolan.


Shanghai. Sensex. ASX200 & Beyond — See What’s Next for Asian-Pacific Stocks

Every Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday, our Asian-Pacific Short Term Update brings you new, objective forecasts for the Nikkei 225, ASX200, Hang Seng, Shanghai Composite, S&P Nifty and more. We’ve just  released the December 20 issue, and we’re offering it to you — FREE — through this special offer.

Read your free issue now


[Click chart to expand]

  • March 18, 2014: “The dollar is rallying and the yuan falling as wave 5 appears complete. With prices breaking out now above the upper weekly Keltner channel for the dollar versus the yuan, we can state that a very large dollar rally is in its early stages.”
  • May 11, 2014: “The dollar rally this year versus the Chinese yuan is the largest against that currency since rates were allowed to partially float twenty years ago. The daily chart shows that the dollar has completed five waves up against the yuan. The daily Jurik RSX has now turned lower with a bearish divergence. We should expect some additional pullback in the dollar now versus the yuan. [It] will present an opportunity to become bullish on this cross rate on further weakness.”
  • December 9, 2014: “We showed the long-term Yuan charts a few times earlier this year after the dollar completed a long-term, five-wave decline. The subsequent dollar yuan rally managed to break above its upper weekly Keltner channel and then challenge the upper monthly channel. Then, the dollar began a months-long pullback against the yuan. We’ve been waiting for signs of the next wave higher in dollar yuan. That wave is beginning now.”
  • January 27, 2015: “A long term dollar rally versus the yuan fits Elliott Wave International’s outlook for deflation. …the dollar rally versus the yuan remains in its early and formative stages.”
  • July 30, 2015: “It’s been some time since we checked in on the dollar yuan exchange rate. The rate is pegged by the Chinese government, though it is subject to market pressures. We’ve been patiently awaiting an upside breakout in the dollar against the yuan. Recent news reports have highlighted the increasing flight of capital from China. That capital flight causes upward pressure on the dollar yuan, which is the direction we’ve been expecting this market to take for some time. Reports are also tracking heavy Chinese selling of U.S. Treasuries in order to dampen the upward pressure on dollar yuan. For now, the peg holds tight, as shown in the weekly chart. Yet at some point, markets are bigger than governments. We expect dollar yuan to defeat those who are determined to peg it. …when that time comes, it will be a third-of-a-third wave higher for the dollar against the yuan [targeting] trading area at 6.80.”

  • August 23, 2015: “China is holding the line again on the yuan, but their very small devaluation is lagging far behind the large moves in their neighbors’ exchange rates. The offshore yuan continues to put pressure on the Chinese for further devaluations. That devaluation will come, but we may need to wait a while before it occurs.”
  • October 13, 2015: “The bigger picture in the yuan shows that the dollar decline since the sharp devaluation move is clearly corrective. To sum up all the evidence, we are closely monitoring these markets for an expected resumption of volatility across all financial markets.”
  • November 10, 2015: “The dollar is once again stronger versus the offshore yuan than the official, onshore, pegged trading. A higher dollar versus emerging market currencies will once again pressure China to devalue the yuan. We continue to expect the yuan to trade at 6.8 per dollar in coming months.”

  • December 15, 2015: “We’re seeing the Chinese yuan’s steady devaluation as the fixed onshore exchange rate continues to follow the offshore rate, where the dollar is moving higher. The 6.80 level of Minor wave 4’s trading range as shown on the monthly chart is our minimum target for this move. The yuan’s devaluation will keep the pressure on emerging market currencies in coming months. Each country believes the best way to fight deflation is to devalue their currency and export that devaluation to their neighbor. These pressures on all currencies to devalue will continue into 2016.”
  • January 12, 2016: “The yuan will move lower regardless of Chinese government actions. But this reversal today likely marks the wave (iii) top in the dollar, so we may expect a week or more of quieter yuan trading before the long-term dollar rally resumes.”
  • April 24, 2016: “The yuan seems poised for another round of devaluation as the dollar exchange rate moves higher in Minute wave v.”
  • May 10, 2016: “The dollar is moving higher again versus the yuan as Minute wave v gathers upside momentum. The dollar is trading at the largest premium over the yuan on the offshore market since February. Look for the dollar to continue towards our long-term price target at 6.80 yuan per dollar in coming weeks and months.”
  • June 19, 2016: “The dollar advance against the yuan continues. This Minute wave v rally is orderly so far.”
  • October 4, 2016: “We have a long-term minimum target of 6.83 for this advance, which is the level of the previous fourth wave, the end of the Minor 4 triangle in 2010, shown on the monthly chart. We first issued that price target over a year ago in 2015. This strong, long-term trend up in the dollar versus the yuan deserves our respect.”
  • November 8, 2016: “The Chinese yuan has reached our long-term price target of 6.80.

So, what should we make of this brief history?

It’s best summarized by this quote from Chris Carolan’s Asian-Pacific Short Term Update:

“The [dollar/yuan] rate is pegged by the Chinese government, though it is subject to market pressures.

“…markets are bigger than governments.”


Shanghai. Sensex. ASX200 & Beyond — See What’s Next for Asian-Pacific Stocks

Every Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday, our Asian-Pacific Short Term Update brings you new, objective forecasts for the Nikkei 225, ASX200, Hang Seng, Shanghai Composite, S&P Nifty and more. We’ve just  released the December 20 issue, and we’re offering it to you — FREE — through this special offer.

Read your free issue now

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Chinese Yuan: “Manipulated” Does NOT Mean “Unpredictable”. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

L’illusione del valore: l’esempio del DAX

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orso

Bear market sta aspettando li, seduto e annoiato come un orso in letargo. perchè i cicli del mercato rialzista sono lunghi e tortuosi come una scalata in montagna mentre, quando l’orso si sveglia dal letargo, la discesa si fa ripida e senza soste: una caduta verticale! Ma cosa accade durante l’onda 5 finale?

Io la chiamo “illusione del valore”: la svalutazione della moneta è l’ultima carta per cercare di rilanciare l’economia, si pensa che il mercato possa durare all’infinito e si tende a razionalizzare ogni news in favore di nuove economy oppure di un cambiamento politico che porterà ad una nuova economia.

Prendiamo ad esempio l’indice tedesco DAX: un enorme bull market che dura dal 2008 ad oggi, si ma se per pura curiosità prendiamo in esame il dax denominato in dollari, notiamo che il trend è ribassista dal 2008 ad oggi: ma allora cosa sta accadendo??

dax30-perf-indexdaxglobal-gold-min-tr-usd

Accade che il trend rialzista del Dax denominato in euro, è solamente una svalutazione monetaria dell’euro e non una creazione di valore. Se osserviamo la correlazione tra DAX ed il cambio EUR USD prima del 2008 notiamo una correlazione positiva: salira EUR USD e saliva anche il DAX: in quella fase i fondamentali economici supportavano l’economia e non era necessario l’intervento delle banche centrali. Con l’intervento delle banche centrali invece tutto è cambiato: il mercato sale con fondamentali economici molto più deboli rispetto a prima.

Ora è lecito chiedersi: ma se per caso l’EUR inizia un ciclo rialzista cosa succede al DAX in EUR? è logico pensare e assolutamente plausibile affermare che un rally dell’euro stroncherebbe ogni velleità rialzista del DAX denominato in EUR.

Quindi mai come in questo momento occhio al mondo Forex: il risveglio dell’orso passa da li, questa volta però il risveglio dell’orso potrebbe durare per molto molto tempo.

Se pensate che quello del DAX sia solo un caso date un’occhiata a GBP USD e all’indice inglese FTSE 100

 

 

 

This Commodity Has Perked Up its Investors’ Portfolios

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This Commodity Has Perked Up its Investors’ Portfolios

92016sugar2

The 90% rally in sugar prices since late 2015 fulfills our long-standing forecast

By Elliott Wave International

Imagine that the world’s leading commodity markets were cars speeding down a two-lane highway. Who do you think is in the driver’s seat controlling which direction prices go?

Well, if you follow the mainstream school of wisdom, the answer to that question is simple: Outside factors, or “fundamentals,” drive price trends in commodity markets. That can be a countless number of external factors related to the market itself, such as supply/demand data, weather patterns, political unrest in growing regions, other markets, and on.

We see the picture quite differently. In our opinion, fundamentals are in the passenger seat, at best. And behind the wheel is investor psychology, which unfolds as Elliott wave patterns on price charts.

Nothing makes this distinction clearer than the recent history of one single commodity: sugar.

In mid-2015, sugar prices were about as sweet as curdled milk. The market was mired in a multi-year bear market with prices circling the drain of an 8-year low.

According to the mainstream experts, the sugar “car” was being driven by several bearish factors, such as:

  • The currency of the world’s no. 1 sugar producer — Brazil — was at a 12-year low
  • Oil prices were plunging, reducing demand for alternative, ethanol-based fuels
  • The European Union was ending its “Quota system” which helps shield against outside competition
  • China was flooding the market with artificial sweeteners
  • The U.S. dollar was soaring
  • And Brazil was experiencing a bumper sugar crop

Factors like these, many said, were destined to steer sugar prices Thelma & Louise style straight over a cliff — as these news items from mid-2015 make plain:

Sugar Bears Still in Charge” (Wall Street Journal)

“Global sugar prices have been on a downward trend, and there’s no end in sight.” (Food Navigator)

“The futures sugar market in New York behaves like an endless rerun of a horror movie.” (Wall Street Journal)

“Such is the state of the sugar cane market that local media in India have reported a rise in the number of sugar farmers committing suicide. The market is expected to remain in surplus into next year.” (The Telegraph)

Now, for our take on the situation. According to our chief commodity analyst Jeffrey Kennedy, that same sugar “car” was about to make an abrupt U-turn — U as in “UP.”

In our July 2015 Monthly Commodity Junctures, Jeffrey Kennedy outlined a very bullish scenario for sugar, including these details:

“I’ve noticed over the years that significant turning points tend to occur in years ending 0 and 5… as we move into 2015, I’m actually anticipating a significant low. I’m looking for prices to bottom this year.

“I believe we’re in the very late stages of the initial move down. Ideally, say as move into the fourth quarter of 2015, the [decline] will terminate ant that will give way to an advance where I expect sugar prices to actually double.

“Once we do finish this move down, I will be looking for a sizable move, something that will easily push prices back up to 18, 20, even as high as 22.”

From there, the next chart shows what happened:

  • Sugar prices bottomed in late September, 2015, the “fourth quarter” time window that Jeffrey identified.
  • Then, sugar prices exploded upward in a 90%-plus rally to the 22 cents/pound price target that Jeffrey identified.

When markets present Elliott wave counts as strong as the one that helped Jeffrey anticipate sugar’s dramatic 2015-6 comeback — it captures all of our analysts’ attention.

In fact, in our September 19 Short Term Update, we gave a special commodity update to address the next likely move in sugar — one that may make a dramatic appearance soon:

“As for other markets, if you have any experience in commodities, Sugar is a candidate for a [major move].”


Get 32 pages of actionable trading lessons, hand selected by EWI’s Chief Commodity Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy, designed to help you become a better trader. Absolutely free!

All you need is to create a free Club EWI profile. Here’s what else you’ll learn:

  • How to Make Yourself a Better Trader
  • How the Wave Principle Can Improve Your Trading
  • When to Place a Trade
  • How to Apply Fibonacci Math to Real-World Trading
  • How to Integrate Technical Analysis into an Elliott Wave Forecast

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(Already a Club EWI member? Get your free trading lessons here.)

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline This Commodity Has Perked Up its Investors’ Portfolios. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.