Descrittiva

Venerdì 26 Maggio a villa Braida evento con XTB

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DESIGN 773 - Masterclass Italy LP - KV - desktop (1).png

Venerdì 26 Maggio sarò presente come relatore per XTB (broker leader nel mercato CFD) presso villa Braida di Mogliano Veneto. Nell’evento presenterò il modello delle Onde di Elliott applicato ai mercati finanziari, passando dalla teoria alle basi matematiche, per poi concludere con una panoramica sui mercati “caldi” del momento.

L’evento è gratuito, basta registrarsi a questo link:

http://it.xtb.com/evento-xtb-maggio-2017?utm_source=affiliate&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=A_58905_venecia_2017&utm_content=pozzebon&utm_term=IT

Vi aspetto numerosi

Filippo

 

 

Contracts for Difference (“CFDs”) are leveraged products and carry a high level of risk to your capital as prices may move rapidly against you. Losses can exceed your deposits and you may be required to make further payments.

Annunci

I frattali in natura

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La sera ti ritrovi a tagliare il radicchio rosso di Treviso e ti imbatti nella teora dei frattali. La magia della natura e ogni processo di crescita nell’universo è regolato dalla golden section, scoperta da Leonardo Fibonacci, forse il più grande matematico di tutti i tempi. Mi chiedo come mai nel 1200 eravamo all’avanguardia mentre adesso, non siamo all’avanguardia in nessun campo,  a parte la cucina.

Non trascurate questo post che, all’apparenza può non sembrare molto tecnico, il primo passo per aver successo nel trading è capire il concetto di frattale e riconoscerlo nel mercato, nel frattempo ammirate questo radicchio:

radicchio

Golden section radicchio

radicchio-cespo

processo di crescita completo

 

 

Chinese Yuan: “Manipulated” Does NOT Mean “Unpredictable” “…markets are bigger than governments.”

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Chinese Yuan: “Manipulated” Does NOT Mean “Unpredictable”
“…markets are bigger than governments.”

By Elliott Wave International

This year’s U.S. presidential election brought into focus one market you don’t hear about often: the Chinese yuan, or renminbi.

“Donald Trump has been telling us all for a long time now that China is a currency manipulator. It’s part of his plan for his first 100 days in office to get on with making sure that China is legally declared to be such a currency manipulator and thus start the process of doing something about it.

“The problem with this is that China really is a currency manipulator. But they’re manipulating the value of the yuan up, not down. Thus returning it to the correct free market value isn’t going to have the desired effect of closing America’s trade deficit with China.” (Forbes, Nov. 13.)

However things shake out with China under the new White House administration, let’s look closer at the basic premise of this argument — namely, that China’s government manipulates the currency.

By definition, market manipulation means stopping the free-market forces from doing what they do best: setting a fair value of an asset that suits both the buyer and the seller. It also implies that the manipulated market is no longer predictable using trend indicators you would apply to other, freely-traded assets.

So, does this mean that the yuan has been unpredictable?

You be the judge.

Below, you see a chart of the yuan vs. U.S. dollar exchange rate going back to 2014.

The arrows on this chart show you the timing of 15 yuan forecasts subscribers saw over the past two years in our Sunday-Tuesday-Thursday Asian-Pacific Short Term Update, edited by Chris Carolan.


Shanghai. Sensex. ASX200 & Beyond — See What’s Next for Asian-Pacific Stocks

Every Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday, our Asian-Pacific Short Term Update brings you new, objective forecasts for the Nikkei 225, ASX200, Hang Seng, Shanghai Composite, S&P Nifty and more. We’ve just  released the December 20 issue, and we’re offering it to you — FREE — through this special offer.

Read your free issue now


[Click chart to expand]

  • March 18, 2014: “The dollar is rallying and the yuan falling as wave 5 appears complete. With prices breaking out now above the upper weekly Keltner channel for the dollar versus the yuan, we can state that a very large dollar rally is in its early stages.”
  • May 11, 2014: “The dollar rally this year versus the Chinese yuan is the largest against that currency since rates were allowed to partially float twenty years ago. The daily chart shows that the dollar has completed five waves up against the yuan. The daily Jurik RSX has now turned lower with a bearish divergence. We should expect some additional pullback in the dollar now versus the yuan. [It] will present an opportunity to become bullish on this cross rate on further weakness.”
  • December 9, 2014: “We showed the long-term Yuan charts a few times earlier this year after the dollar completed a long-term, five-wave decline. The subsequent dollar yuan rally managed to break above its upper weekly Keltner channel and then challenge the upper monthly channel. Then, the dollar began a months-long pullback against the yuan. We’ve been waiting for signs of the next wave higher in dollar yuan. That wave is beginning now.”
  • January 27, 2015: “A long term dollar rally versus the yuan fits Elliott Wave International’s outlook for deflation. …the dollar rally versus the yuan remains in its early and formative stages.”
  • July 30, 2015: “It’s been some time since we checked in on the dollar yuan exchange rate. The rate is pegged by the Chinese government, though it is subject to market pressures. We’ve been patiently awaiting an upside breakout in the dollar against the yuan. Recent news reports have highlighted the increasing flight of capital from China. That capital flight causes upward pressure on the dollar yuan, which is the direction we’ve been expecting this market to take for some time. Reports are also tracking heavy Chinese selling of U.S. Treasuries in order to dampen the upward pressure on dollar yuan. For now, the peg holds tight, as shown in the weekly chart. Yet at some point, markets are bigger than governments. We expect dollar yuan to defeat those who are determined to peg it. …when that time comes, it will be a third-of-a-third wave higher for the dollar against the yuan [targeting] trading area at 6.80.”

  • August 23, 2015: “China is holding the line again on the yuan, but their very small devaluation is lagging far behind the large moves in their neighbors’ exchange rates. The offshore yuan continues to put pressure on the Chinese for further devaluations. That devaluation will come, but we may need to wait a while before it occurs.”
  • October 13, 2015: “The bigger picture in the yuan shows that the dollar decline since the sharp devaluation move is clearly corrective. To sum up all the evidence, we are closely monitoring these markets for an expected resumption of volatility across all financial markets.”
  • November 10, 2015: “The dollar is once again stronger versus the offshore yuan than the official, onshore, pegged trading. A higher dollar versus emerging market currencies will once again pressure China to devalue the yuan. We continue to expect the yuan to trade at 6.8 per dollar in coming months.”

  • December 15, 2015: “We’re seeing the Chinese yuan’s steady devaluation as the fixed onshore exchange rate continues to follow the offshore rate, where the dollar is moving higher. The 6.80 level of Minor wave 4’s trading range as shown on the monthly chart is our minimum target for this move. The yuan’s devaluation will keep the pressure on emerging market currencies in coming months. Each country believes the best way to fight deflation is to devalue their currency and export that devaluation to their neighbor. These pressures on all currencies to devalue will continue into 2016.”
  • January 12, 2016: “The yuan will move lower regardless of Chinese government actions. But this reversal today likely marks the wave (iii) top in the dollar, so we may expect a week or more of quieter yuan trading before the long-term dollar rally resumes.”
  • April 24, 2016: “The yuan seems poised for another round of devaluation as the dollar exchange rate moves higher in Minute wave v.”
  • May 10, 2016: “The dollar is moving higher again versus the yuan as Minute wave v gathers upside momentum. The dollar is trading at the largest premium over the yuan on the offshore market since February. Look for the dollar to continue towards our long-term price target at 6.80 yuan per dollar in coming weeks and months.”
  • June 19, 2016: “The dollar advance against the yuan continues. This Minute wave v rally is orderly so far.”
  • October 4, 2016: “We have a long-term minimum target of 6.83 for this advance, which is the level of the previous fourth wave, the end of the Minor 4 triangle in 2010, shown on the monthly chart. We first issued that price target over a year ago in 2015. This strong, long-term trend up in the dollar versus the yuan deserves our respect.”
  • November 8, 2016: “The Chinese yuan has reached our long-term price target of 6.80.

So, what should we make of this brief history?

It’s best summarized by this quote from Chris Carolan’s Asian-Pacific Short Term Update:

“The [dollar/yuan] rate is pegged by the Chinese government, though it is subject to market pressures.

“…markets are bigger than governments.”


Shanghai. Sensex. ASX200 & Beyond — See What’s Next for Asian-Pacific Stocks

Every Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday, our Asian-Pacific Short Term Update brings you new, objective forecasts for the Nikkei 225, ASX200, Hang Seng, Shanghai Composite, S&P Nifty and more. We’ve just  released the December 20 issue, and we’re offering it to you — FREE — through this special offer.

Read your free issue now

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Chinese Yuan: “Manipulated” Does NOT Mean “Unpredictable”. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

L’illusione del valore: l’esempio del DAX

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orso

Bear market sta aspettando li, seduto e annoiato come un orso in letargo. perchè i cicli del mercato rialzista sono lunghi e tortuosi come una scalata in montagna mentre, quando l’orso si sveglia dal letargo, la discesa si fa ripida e senza soste: una caduta verticale! Ma cosa accade durante l’onda 5 finale?

Io la chiamo “illusione del valore”: la svalutazione della moneta è l’ultima carta per cercare di rilanciare l’economia, si pensa che il mercato possa durare all’infinito e si tende a razionalizzare ogni news in favore di nuove economy oppure di un cambiamento politico che porterà ad una nuova economia.

Prendiamo ad esempio l’indice tedesco DAX: un enorme bull market che dura dal 2008 ad oggi, si ma se per pura curiosità prendiamo in esame il dax denominato in dollari, notiamo che il trend è ribassista dal 2008 ad oggi: ma allora cosa sta accadendo??

dax30-perf-indexdaxglobal-gold-min-tr-usd

Accade che il trend rialzista del Dax denominato in euro, è solamente una svalutazione monetaria dell’euro e non una creazione di valore. Se osserviamo la correlazione tra DAX ed il cambio EUR USD prima del 2008 notiamo una correlazione positiva: salira EUR USD e saliva anche il DAX: in quella fase i fondamentali economici supportavano l’economia e non era necessario l’intervento delle banche centrali. Con l’intervento delle banche centrali invece tutto è cambiato: il mercato sale con fondamentali economici molto più deboli rispetto a prima.

Ora è lecito chiedersi: ma se per caso l’EUR inizia un ciclo rialzista cosa succede al DAX in EUR? è logico pensare e assolutamente plausibile affermare che un rally dell’euro stroncherebbe ogni velleità rialzista del DAX denominato in EUR.

Quindi mai come in questo momento occhio al mondo Forex: il risveglio dell’orso passa da li, questa volta però il risveglio dell’orso potrebbe durare per molto molto tempo.

Se pensate che quello del DAX sia solo un caso date un’occhiata a GBP USD e all’indice inglese FTSE 100

 

 

 

Un altra grande opportunità: Nikkey

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Un altra grande opportunità: Nikkey. l’attesa anche su questo indice è finita: è tempo di elaborare un piano di trading.

NIKKEI225 Index

 

L’indice giapponese Nikkey è un altro grande esempio di come un movimento direzionale si formi. Dal 2008 ad oggi infatti, il mercato giapponese ha sviluppato un bel movimento impulsivo che rispetta alla perfezione le regole di Elliott, andiamo a vedere perché:

  • onda 3 > onda1
  • onda 4 non può mai entrare nel territorio dell’onda1
  • onda 4 ritraccia tra il 38.2 e il 50.0 % di fibonacci
  • onda 4 trova supporto a ridosso del precedente 4 grado minore

Se osserviamo l’immagine notiamo come queste regole sono rispettate in maniera precisa dall’indice, aggiungendo poi un’analisi short term sul time frame giornaliero notiamo come dai minimi di area 14.870 punti, il mercato abbia formato le classiche 5 onde di ripartenza: siamo in presenza di un minimo tradabile?

NIKKEI225 short term

A mio parere si: ora dopo 5 onde dovremmo aspettare un po’ per un pullback o test del minimo in 3 onde: a quel punto, se il pullback sarà di natura correttiva avremmo la sicurezza che un nuovo ciclo rialzista sull’indice giapponese è partito.

 

5 Fatal Flaws of Trading

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The 5 Fatal Flaws of Trading

By Elliott Wave International

Close to ninety percent of all traders lose money. The remaining ten percent somehow manage to either break even or even turn a profit — and more importantly, do it consistently. How do they do that?

That’s an age-old question. While there is no magic formula, Elliott Wave International’s own Jeffrey Kennedy has identified five fundamental flaws that, in his opinion, stop most traders from being consistently successful. We don’t claim to have found The Holy Grail of trading here, but sometimes a single idea can change a person’s life. Maybe you’ll find one in Jeffrey’s take on trading. We sincerely hope so.

The following is an excerpt form Jeffrey Kennedy’s Trader’s Classroom Collection eBook.


Why Do Traders Lose?

If you’ve been trading for a long time, you no doubt have felt that a monstrous, invisible hand sometimes reaches into your trading account and takes out money. It doesn’t seem to matter how many books you buy, how many seminars you attend or how many hours you spend analyzing price charts, you just can’t seem to prevent that invisible hand from depleting your trading account funds.

Which brings us to the question: Why do traders lose? Or maybe we should ask, “How do you stop the Hand?” Whether you are a seasoned professional or just thinking about opening your first trading account, the ability to stop the Hand is proportional to how well you understand and overcome the Five Fatal Flaws of trading. For each fatal flaw represents a finger on the invisible hand that wreaks havoc with your trading account.

Fatal Flaw No. 1 — Lack of Methodology

If you aim to be a consistently successful trader, then you must have a defined trading methodology, which is simply a clear and concise way of looking at markets. Guessing or going by gut instinct won’t work over the long run. If you don’t have a defined trading methodology, then you don’t have a way to know what constitutes a buy or sell signal. Moreover, you can’t even consistently correctly identify the trend.

How to overcome this fatal flaw? Answer: Write down your methodology. Define in writing what your analytical tools are and, more importantly, how you use them. It doesn’t matter whether you use the Wave Principle, Point and Figure charts, Stochastics, RSI or a combination of all of the above. What does matter is that you actually take the effort to define it (i.e., what constitutes a buy, a sell, your trailing stop and instructions on exiting a position). And the best hint I can give you regarding developing a defined trading methodology is this: If you can’t fit it on the back of a business card, it’s probably too complicated.

Fatal Flaw No. 2 — Lack of Discipline

When you have clearly outlined and identified your trading methodology, then you must have the discipline to follow your system. A Lack of Discipline in this regard is the second fatal flaw. If the way you view a price chart or evaluate a potential trade setup is different from how you did it a month ago, then you have either not identified your methodology or you lack the discipline to follow the methodology you have identified. The formula for success is to consistently apply a proven methodology. So the best advice I can give you to overcome a lack of discipline is to define a trading methodology that works best for you and follow it religiously.

Fatal Flaw No. 3 — Unrealistic Expectations

Between you and me, nothing makes me angrier than those commercials that say something like, “…$5,000 properly positioned in Natural Gas can give you returns of over $40,000…” Advertisements like this are a disservice to the financial industry as a whole and end up costing uneducated investors a lot more than $5,000. In addition, they help to create the third fatal flaw: Unrealistic Expectations.

Yes, it is possible to experience above-average returns trading your own account. However, it’s difficult to do it without taking on above-average risk. So what is a realistic return to shoot for in your first year as a trader — 50%, 100%, 200%? Whoa, let’s rein in those unrealistic expectations. In my opinion, the goal for every trader their first year out should be not to lose money. In other words, shoot for a 0% return your first year. If you can manage that, then in year two, try to beat the Dow or the S&P. These goals may not be flashy but they are realistic, and if you can learn to live with them — and achieve them — you will fend off the Hand.

Fatal Flaw No. 4 — Lack of Patience

The fourth finger of the invisible hand that robs your trading account is Lack of Patience. I forget where, but I once read that markets trend only 20% of the time, and, from my experience, I would say that this is an accurate statement. So think about it, the other 80% of the time the markets are not trending in one clear direction.

That may explain why I believe that for any given time frame, there are only two or three really good trading opportunities. For example, if you’re a long-term trader, there are typically only two or three compelling tradable moves in a market during any given year. Similarly, if you are a short-term trader, there are only two or three high-quality trade setups in a given week.

All too often, because trading is inherently exciting (and anything involving money usually is exciting), it’s easy to feel like you’re missing the party if you don’t trade a lot. As a result, you start taking trade setups of lesser and lesser quality and begin to over-trade.

How do you overcome this lack of patience? The advice I have found to be most valuable is to remind yourself that every week, there is another trade-of-the-year. In other words, don’t worry about missing an opportunity today, because there will be another one tomorrow, next week and next month…I promise.

I remember a line from a movie (either Sergeant York with Gary Cooper or The Patriot with Mel Gibson) in which one character gives advice to another on how to shoot a rifle: “Aim small, miss small.” I offer the same advice in this new context. To aim small requires patience. So be patient, and you’ll miss small.

Fatal Flaw No. 5 — Lack of Money Management

The final fatal flaw to overcome as a trader is a Lack of Money Management, and this topic deserves more than just a few paragraphs, because money management encompasses risk/reward analysis, probability of success and failure, protective stops and so much more. Even so, I would like to address the subject of money management with a focus on risk as a function of portfolio size.

Now the big boys (i.e., the professional traders) tend to limit their risk on any given position to 1% – 3% of their portfolio. If we apply this rule to ourselves, then for every $5,000 we have in our trading account, we can risk only $50 – $150 on any given trade. Stocks might be a little different, but a $50 stop in Corn, which is one point, is simply too tight a stop, especially when the 10-day average trading range in Corn recently has been more than 10 points. A more plausible stop might be five points or 10, in which case, depending on what percentage of your total portfolio you want to risk, you would need an account size between $15,000 and $50,000.

Simply put, I believe that many traders begin to trade either under-funded or without sufficient capital in their trading account to trade the markets they choose to trade. And that doesn’t even address the size that they trade (i.e., multiple contracts).

To overcome this fatal flaw, let me expand on the logic from the “aim small, miss small” movie line. If you have a small trading account, then trade small. You can accomplish this by trading fewer contracts, or trading e-mini contracts or even stocks. Bottom line, on your way to becoming a consistently successful trader, you must realize that one key is longevity. If your risk on any given position is relatively small, then you can weather the rough spots. Conversely, if you risk 25% of your portfolio on each trade, after four consecutive losers, you’re out altogether.

Break the Hand’s Grip

Trading successfully is not easy. It’s hard work…damn hard. And if anyone leads you to believe otherwise, run the other way, and fast. But this hard work can be rewarding, above-average gains are possible and the sense of satisfaction one feels after a few nice trades is absolutely priceless. To get to that point, though, you must first break the fingers of the Hand that is holding you back and stealing money from your trading account. I can guarantee that if you attend to the five fatal flaws I’ve outlined, you won’t be caught red-handed stealing from your own account.

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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline The 5 Fatal Flaws of Trading. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Le banche centrali controllano il mercato: il grande mito sfatato dallo YEN!

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Le banche centrali controllano il mercato: il grande mito sfatato dallo YEN! In questi anni viviamo una sorta di doping finanziario, non farti ingannare!

JPY

 

“Finalmente” sono stati  introdotti  i tassi negativi in Giappone: il direttore della Bank Of Japan Kuroda ha dato l’inizio ad una nuova fase ormai affermata: la deflazione totale.

Di deflazione totale si tratta, anche perché, mascherando l’azione come uno strumento di rilancio dell’economia, ha fallito per l’ennesima volta il suo tentativo di svalutare lo yen e mandare il Nikkey alle stelle : vero obiettivo delle banche centrale.

E allora basta con queste false promesse: l’unico vero obiettivo delle banche centrali non è rilanciare l’economia reale ma, non fare scoppiare una nuova crisi finanziaria. Peccato che il mercato, da un anno a questa parte, ha cambiato modo di agire: la conferma definitiva ci è stata fornita dallo yen pochi giorni fa. Il governatore Kuroda dopo l’introduzione dei tassi negativi, vedendo vendite massicce sullo yen ed il nikkey che impazziva al rialzo come non mai avrà sicuramente festeggiato, ma cos’è successo nei giorni successivi?

Il mercato ha disatteso le speranze del governatore Kuroda e lo yen ha cominciato a rafforzarsi più di prima e il Nikkey a scendere più di prima. La verità è questa: la news dei tassi di interessi negativi coincideva con il rimbalzo tecnico, ma solo di rimbalzo tecnico si trattava: il trend principale, come segnalato da vari miei articoli, è ribassista!

Oggi più che mai, il modello delle onde di Elliott, ti aiuta a non essere ingannato da questo doping finanziario! Attenzione quindi anche al governatore della BCE Mario Draghi: le sorprese sono dietro l’angolo